VANCOUVER - The B.C. Economic Forecast Council has lowered its growth projections for the province this year and next in light of the worsening global economy.

On average, the council expects B.C.'s GDP growth to be 2.2 per cent in 2011, down from its 2.7 per cent forecast in January of this year. The council also predicts B.C.'s GDP will grow 2.2 per cent in 2012 and average 2.7 per cent in 2013-16.

British Columbia's Ministry of Finance forecast in the September Quarterly Report that the provincial economy would grow 2.0 per cent in 2011 and 2.3 per cent in 2012. A new government forecast will be released with Budget 2012.

The majority of council members predict B.C. will outperform the Canadian average in 2012 and encouraged the government to continue the pursuit to balance the budget in 2013-14.

At their meeting, council members discussed their predictions for the B.C., Canadian and U.S. economies, including the risk of a double-dip recession, as well as the Euro-zone sovereign debt crisis and the potential slowdown in Asia.

The Economic Forecast Council includes some of the most respected independent economic forecasters in Canada. The 14-member council's mandate - as determined by the Budget Transparency and Accountability Act - is to provide economic advice to the Minister of Finance in developing each year's budget and fiscal plan.

Individual council members' growth forecasts for B.C.'s real gross domestic product are included in the attached backgrounder.

Quotes:

Minister of Finance Kevin Falcon -

"Our February budget used one of the most cautious GDP growth forecasts in Canada. Today, the council has backed our conservative fiscal plan in light of the European sovereign debt crisis and continuing weakness in the U.S. economy. There is an increased risk of a worldwide double-dip recession, and both the Province and the council agree we have to take a very cautious, prudent approach when putting together our next budget."

Contact:

Jamie Edwardson
Director of Communications
Ministry of Finance
250 356-2821

BACKGROUNDER

Nov. 18, 2011 Ministry of Finance

B.C. Economic Forecast Council-Summary of B.C. real GDP forecasts

Participant: Doug Porter

Organization: Bank of Montreal

2011: 2.6

2012: 2.3

2013: 2.7

2014-16 Annual Average: 2.6

Participant: Ken Peacock

Organization: Business Council of BC

2011: 2.0

2012: 2.1

2013: 2.6

2014-16 Annual Average: 2.5

Participant: Cameron Muir

Organization: BC Real Estate Association

2011: 2.1

2012:2.4

2013:2.8

2014-16 Annual Average: 2.8

Participant: Helmut Pastrick

Organization: Central 1 Credit Union

2011: 1.8

2012: 2.2

2013: 2.8

2014-16 Annual Average: 3.4

Participant: Warren Lovely

Organization: CIBC

2011: 2.4

2012: 2.2

2013: 2.4

2014-16 Annual Average: 2.7

Participant: Marie-Christine Bernard

Organization: Conference Board

2011: 2.6

2012: 2.5

2013: 3.5

2014-16 Annual Average: 2.7

Participant: Arlene Kish

Organization: Global Insight

2011: 2.5

2012: 1.7

2013: 2.3

2014-16 Annual Average: 2.7

Participant: Carl Sonnen

Organization: Informetrica

2011: 1.8

2012: 2.3

2013: 2.7

2014-16 Annual Average: 2.8

Participant: Carlos Leitao

Organization: Laurentian Bank Securities

2011: 2.3

2012: 1.9

2013: 2.4

2014-16 Annual Average: 2.6

Participant: Craig Wright

Organization: RBC

2011: 2.1

2012: 2.3

2013: 2.5

2014-16 Annual Average: 2.9

Participant: Warren Jestin

Organization: Scotiabank

2011: 2.3

2012: 2.0

2013: 2.7

2014-16 Annual Average: 2.8

Participant: Ernie Stokes

Organization: Stokes Economic Consulting

2011: 2.0

2012: 2.1

2013: 2.3

2014-16 Annual Average: 2.9

Participant: Derek Burleton

Organization: TD

2011: 1.9

2012: 1.9

2013: 2.5

2014-16 Annual Average: 2.2

Participant: David Baxter

Organization: Urban Futures Institute

2011: 2.5

2012: 3.1

2013: 2.6

2014-16 Annual Average: 2.6

Average

2011: 2.2

2012: 2.2

2013: 2.6

2014-16 Annual Average: 2.7

Contact:

Jamie Edwardson
Director of Communications
Ministry of Finance
250 356-2821