B.C. real GDP growth projections released by the independent Economic Forecast Council continue to show modest growth over the next two years, Finance Minister Michael de Jong announced today at the conclusion of the council's annual meeting.

On average, the council expects B.C. real GDP growth to be 1.4 per cent in 2013, down two-tenths of a percentage point from its forecast in May of this year. The council also projects B.C. real GDP will grow 2.3 per cent in 2014, 2.7 per cent in 2015 and average 2.7 per cent annually for the 2016-18 period.

The council has lowered its growth projections for B.C. this year and next in light of slowing year-to-date domestic indicators and ongoing uncertainty in the global economy. A final forecast will be published with Budget 2014.

Council members discussed their forecasts for the B.C., Canadian, U.S., European and Asian economies. Topics included meeting labour market demand through trades and skills training, development of B.C. resources including liquefied natural gas, and the B.C. housing market outlook. The council also noted the economic benefit of the Province's ongoing fiscal discipline and balanced budget.

International topics included the U.S. political landscape and monetary policy, outlook for the U.S. housing market and its effect on B.C., the effect of ongoing challenges in Europe, trade opportunities with Asia, and the prospects and benefits to B.C. of the internationalization of China's offshore Renminbi market, noting the Province's recent issue of an RMB bond.

The Economic Forecast Council includes some of the most respected independent economic forecasters in Canada. The 13-member council's mandate-as determined by the Budget Transparency and Accountability Act-is to provide economic advice to the Minister of Finance in developing each year's budget and fiscal plan.

Council members are typically surveyed twice a year, once in the fall and then again the following January. This year they were also surveyed in May in preparation for the June Budget Update.

In the June Budget Update, B.C.'s Ministry of Finance forecast the provincial economy to grow 1.4 per cent in 2013 and 2.2 per cent in 2014. A new government forecast will be released with Budget 2014.

Quote:

Minister of Finance Michael de Jong -

"Over the last few years we've demonstrated the fiscal prudence and discipline required to control spending and return to a balanced budget. Given the revised projections from the Economic Forecast Council, it's clear we must maintain that discipline in order to protect our balanced budget."

A backgrounder follows.

Media Contact:

Jamie Edwardson
Director of Communications
Ministry of Finance
250 356-2821

B.C. Economic Forecast Council - Summary of B.C. real GDP forecasts

Participant: Douglas Porter
Organization: Bank of Montreal
2013: 1.7
2014: 2.2
2015: 2.5
2016-18 annual average: 2.3

Participant: Ken Peacock
Organization: Business Council of BC
2013: 1.5
2014: 2.4
2015: 3.4
2016-18 annual average: 3.0

Participant: Cameron Muir
Organization: BC Real Estate Association
2013: 1.6
2014: 2.4
2015: 2.8
2016-18 annual average: 2.5

Participant: Helmut Pastrick
Organization: Central 1 Credit Union
2013: 1.1
2014: 2.0
2015: 3.1
2016-18 annual average: 3.7

Participant: Avery Shenfeld
Organization: CIBC
2013: 1.5
2014: 2.4
2015: 2.6
2016-18 annual average: 2.5

Participant: Marie-Christine Barnard
Organization: Conference Board of Canada
2013: 1.5
2014: 2.7
2015: 3.1
2016-18 annual average: 2.5

Participant: Arlene Kish
Organization: IHS Global Insight
2013: 1.5
2014: 2.5
2015: 2.7
2016-18 annual average: 2.6

Participant: Sebastien Lavoie

Organization: Laurentian Bank Securities
2013: 1.4
2014: 1.9
2015: 2.1
2016-18 annual average: 2.8

Participant: Craig Wright
Organization: RBC
2013: 1.4
2014: 2.4
2015: 2.9
2016-18 annual average: 2.1

Participant: Warren Jestin
Organization: Scotiabank
2013: 1.3
2014: 2.2
2015: 2.8
2016-18 annual average: 2.9

Participant: Ernie Stokes
Organization: Stokes Economic Consulting
2013: 1.5
2014: 2.5
2015: 2.5
2016-18 annual average: 3.2

Participant: Derek Burleton
Organization: TD Bank
2013: 1.3
2014: 2.3
2015: 2.5
2016-18 annual average: 2.1

Participant: David Baxter
Organization: Urban Futures Institute
2013: 1.4
2014: 2.3
2015: 2.6
2016-18 annual average: 2.4

Economic Forecast Council Average
2013: 1.4
2014: 2.3
2015: 2.7
2016-18 annual average: 2.7

Media Contact:

Jamie Edwardson
Director of Communications
Ministry of Finance
250 356-2821