By legislation, a second quarterly report is not required based on the recent election timelines. Instead, government is required to provide a fiscal update within 90 days of forming the new cabinet. Government is providing the 2024 fall economic and fiscal update, which provides an update on the 2024-25 fiscal year, following the same format and full disclosure as the usual second quarterly report released each year.

Economic highlights

• High interest rates and high prices continue to slow economic growth in the current year, impacting retail sales and exports.
  • Retail sales are expected to improve in 2025 due to lower inflation, lower interest rates and relatively strong wage growth that restore purchasing power.
  • Exports are expected to rise in 2025 with the anticipated production of liquefied natural gas (LNG) by LNG Canada by mid-2025.
• Job growth has been relatively strong, but has slowed in the second half of this year. B.C.’s employment was up 2% year-to-date to November 2024 and the unemployment rate was among the lowest in the country at 5.7%.
• B.C.’s population increased by 3% annually as of July 1, 2024, due to strong international migration.
  • B.C. and national population growth is expected to slow due to lower federal admission targets for permanent and temporary residents.
• The report shows in the first 10 months of the year, new home construction was down 11% from last year’s record high, but remains well above the 10-year historical average. More recent data from November 2024 shows home construction down 8.2% from last year’s record. Housing starts are projected to be the fourth-highest on record in 2024.
  • B.C. housing starts are expected to remain strong at 45,300 units in 2024 and 48,400 units in 2025, supported by private- and public-sector investment, legislative changes to encourage more homebuilding in the province and the recently announced federal mortgage-rule changes.
  • According to the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, B.C. housing starts have been supported by a growing share of rental apartment construction.

Operating results

• Revenue for 2024-25 is forecast to be $81.4 billion, $322 million lower than the first quarterly report, primarily due to lower corporate income taxes, sales taxes and federal government contributions.
  • Corporate income tax revenue is forecast to be $391 million lower based on a weaker outlook by the federal government for the national corporate taxable income.
  • Sales tax revenue is forecast to be $146 million lower, reflecting lower consumer spending.
  • Projected natural resource revenues are down $193 million, mainly due to lower natural gas prices.
  • Federal government contributions are expected to be $14.3 billion, down $232 million, mainly due to a decrease in eligible recoveries related to climate-related events, changed cost estimates and rescheduling of projects.
  • Investment earnings are $146 million higher due to positive returns on cash balances.
  • The net income for commercial Crown corporations is expected to improve by $392 million since the first quarterly report from higher investment earnings at ICBC.
  • There were $102 million in other revenue changes, including fee revenues collected by Crown agencies, miscellaneous revenues and other taxation changes.
• Expenses are forecast to be $90.9 billion, $107 million higher than the first quarterly report. This includes:
  • $225 million higher spending for forecasted statutory spending, new First Nation revenue-sharing agreements for natural gas royalties revenue and higher net spending from service delivery agencies, primarily by health authorities.
  • The higher spending is partly offset by lower than expected costs ($118 million) for wildfires due to favourable weather conditions. Total wildfire spending for the year is projected at $768 million.

Capital investment

• Taxpayer-supported capital spending is forecast to be $13.2 billion in 2024-25, $386 million lower than the first quarterly report primarily due to factors such as scheduling of projects.
• Newly added taxpayer-supported capital projects of more than $50 million since the first quarterly report include:
  • University of British Columbia – Canada’s Immuno-Engineering and Biomanufacturing Hub: Advanced Therapeutic Manufacturing Facility
  • Highway 1 Corridor – Tank Hill
  • BC Hydro – EV charging infrastructure implementation program at various sites
  • BC Hydro – Ladore spillway seismic upgrade project
• Changes to the capital plan since the first quarterly report include revisions to costs for the Broadway Subway and Pattullo Bridge Replacement projects, which were previously announced.
  • The Broadway Subway budget has increased by $127 million to $2.95 billion.
  • The Pattullo budget rose by $260 million to $1.64 billion.
• Self-supported capital spending by Crown agencies is $4 million lower than the first quarterly report, mostly due to changes in the timing of Liquor Distribution Branch expenditures.

Provincial debt

• Total provincial debt is projected at $130 billion by the end of the fiscal year, $1.4 billion more than the forecast in the first quarterly report.
• The Province’s debt metrics remain among the lowest in Canada.
  • The forecast debt-to-GDP ratio is 22.3%.