As active monitoring continues at the site of the Chilcotin River landslide, the River Forecast Centre (RFC) has updated its forecast for potential flooding.

Based on preliminary modelling of a potential worst-case scenario (a rapid collapse of the natural dam caused by the landslide), estimated water flows are expected to be lower than typical freshet (spring snowmelt) peak levels, starting at Lillooet and south to Hope.

However, peak water flows between the Farwell Canyon bridge and the confluence of the Chilcotin River and Fraser River would still be well above normal freshet levels.

The Province continues to monitor and analyze real-time data from both the slide site and the lake that has formed behind the natural dam, and is preparing for all possible outcomes.

People are advised to stay away from the Chilcotin River and Fraser River, and to follow directions from local governments and First Nations. The latest emergency information can be found here: https://www.emergencyinfobc.gov.bc.ca/

The Province continues to co-ordinate closely with local governments and First Nations, including planning for potential evacuation alerts and orders, and the deployment of flood-control assets, if required. Provincial agencies continue to take precautionary measures to protect people, livestock and infrastructure. Interior Health has safely and successfully relocated a number of patients from Lillooet to alternate locations. The Ministry of Agriculture and Food is working to evacuate livestock at risk. Approximately 2,500 cattle have been evacuated from the landslide area.

Helicopters are engaged in surveillance and specialists are moving actively throughout the area. As a result of increased drone traffic, a Notice to Airmen (NOTAM) has been put in place by the BC Wildfire Service in the airspace over the landslide area. The operation of any aircraft not associated with landslide response within this area, including unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs or drones), is illegal. In the interest of air crew and public safety, members of the public are asked to stay clear of the area both on the ground and in the air. This type of activity is extremely dangerous and poses a significant safety risk to personnel, especially when low-flying aircraft are present.

In addition to increased river flows, there remains the potential for significant quantities of woody debris and sediment to pass into both rivers.

It is still uncertain when and how the water pooling behind the dam will re-enter the Chilcotin River, but it could occur any time. The Province is actively monitoring the situation 24/7 and will continue to share the latest information with the public as it becomes available.

Learn More:

To see the latest RFC flood warning, visit: https://bcrfc.env.gov.bc.ca/warnings/advisories/FWT_2024_08_02_1700_Chilcotin_Fraser_upd.pdf