Summary

• Private-sector forecasters expect moderate economic growth in the near-term
• Council members see significant potential for B.C.’s natural-resource sector
• Province well-positioned to leverage major projects and grow B.C.’s economy

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VICTORIA – B.C.’s position as a trade gateway and diversified export market is expected to be a competitive advantage over other provinces, even as tariffs continue to affect the economy, according to private-sector forecasters.

“Uncertainty from changes to U.S. trade policy has undoubtedly affected our economy,” said Brenda Bailey, Minister of Finance. “We’re taking bold action to build on our strengths, creating good jobs and economic growth that will help communities across the province.”

At their annual meeting with the finance minister, the 13 independent private-sector forecasters from across Canada that make up B.C.’s Economic Forecast Council noted that, while U.S. tariffs and lower immigration are expected to temper economic growth in the near-term, B.C. is well-positioned to expand its abundant natural-resource sector. Forecasters noted that tariff impacts have been more pronounced on trade-exposed sectors and ones that have been specifically targeted, such as forestry.

The council also discussed the housing and labour markets, as well as opportunities to encourage innovation and investment, and leverage major projects to grow B.C.’s economy.

Forecasting moderate growth

• On average, the Economic Forecast Council expects real GDP in B.C. will grow by 1.4% in 2025, in line with the Province’s projection in the Second Quarterly Report.
• For 2026, the council forecasts B.C.’s real GDP to grow by 1.5%, slightly above the Province’s forecast of 1.3%.
• Over the medium-term, the council forecasts economic growth of around 2.0%.

Quick Facts:

• Economic Forecast Council members will have an opportunity to revise their forecasts before Budget 2026 is published.
• B.C.’s finance minister meets each year with the Economic Forecast Council.
  • The council's forecasts and feedback help inform the Province as it prepares the next provincial budget.
• Budget 2026 will be released in February 2026.

Learn More:

• To access the Second Quarterly Report, visit:
  https://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/governments/finances/reports/quarterly-reports